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REVISITING THE TOURISM-LED ECONOMIC GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: EMPIRICAL INSIGHTS FROM SERBIA
Rašković, Jelena
Anić, Aleksandra
Hristov Stančić, Branislava
Abstract: Although the tourism–growth nexus is extensively explored in the tourism and economics literature, empirical evidence specific to Serbia remains limited. To address this gap, the present study tests the tourismled growth hypothesis (TLGH) by examining the impact of international tourism receipts, to the real GDP, using quarterly data. The ARDL model reveals that international tourism receipts have a statistically significant positive impact on economic growth. The TLGH is confirmed by the existance of a long run cointegration relationship between international tourism receipts and gdp growth, after accounting for control variables such as total fixed assets and real effective exchange rate. This finding suggests that, in the Serbian context, policies aimed at promoting international tourism could serve as an effective instrument for stimulating sustained economic growth.
engleski
2025
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Keywords: TLGH, international tourism receipts, GDP, ARDL, Serbia