Naslov (srp)

REALNI EFEKTIVNI DEVIZNI KURS DINARA I PRILIV STRANOG KAPITALA U SRBIJU

Autor

Kovačević, Radovan

Opis (srp)

Apstrakt. U radu se istražuje uticaj neto priliva kapitala u Srbiju na realni efektivni devizni kurs (REDK) domaće valute. Sprovedeno je empirijsko istraživanje uz primenu ARDL metoda. Nalazi ovog istraživanja pokazuju da neto priliv kapitala vrši pritisak u pravcu realne apresijacije domaće valute. Ocenjeni dugoročni koeficijent pokazuje da porast agregatnog neto priliva kapitala kao procenat BDP-a za 10% dovodi do apresijacije REDK dinara za 0,27%. Prilikom dezagregiranja tokova kapitala zapaženo je da neto priliv portfolio investicija, inostranih kredita i stranih direktnih investicija (SDI) utiče na apresijaciju REDK dinara, dok neto priliv doznaka ima suprotan uticaj. Ocenjeni dugoročni koeficijenti uz varijablu inflacije ukazuju da rast inflacije za 1% dovodi do apresijacije REDK za 0,9% u modelu 1, odnosno 0,8% u modelu 2. Da inflacija i u kratkom roku deluje na apresijaciju REDK potvrđuju ocenjeni kratkoročni koeficijenti u oba modela. Apresijacija REDK odvija se paralelno sa porastom deficita trgovinskog i tekućeg bilansa. To sugeriše da je kretanje REDK pod snažnijim uticajem kretanja kapitala u poređenju sa uticajem realnih robnih tokova s inostranstvom.

Opis (eng)

Abstract. The paper analyses the impact of net capital inflows in Serbia on the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the national currency. The empirical analysis was conducted using the ARDL approach. The results of this study show that net capital inflows exert pressure in the direction of real appreciation of the national currency. The estimated long-run coefficients show that a 10 per cent increase in total net capital inflows leads to a 0.27 per cent appreciation of the REER dinar. When we disaggregate the capital flows, we find that the net inflow of portfolio investment, foreign loans and foreign direct investment (FDI) influences the appreciation of the REER dinar, while the net inflow of remittances has the opposite effect. The estimated long-run coefficients with the inflation variable show that a 1% increase in inflation leads to an appreciation of the REER by 0.9% in Model 1 and 0.8% in Model 2. The fact that inflation also influences the appreciation of the REER in the short term is confirmed by the estimated short-term coefficients in both models. The appreciation of the REER occurs in parallel with the increase in the trade and current account deficits. This indicates that the development of the REER is more strongly influenced by capital movements than by the influence of real goods flows with other countries.

Jezik

srpski

Datum

2025

Licenca

Ovo delo je licencirano pod uslovima licence
Creative Commons CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 - Creative Commons Autorstvo - Nekomercijalno - Bez prerada 4.0 International License.

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode

Predmet

Ključne reči (key words): realan efektivan devizni kurs, strane direktne investicije, portfolio investicije, inostrani krediti.

Key words: real effective exchange rate, foreign direct investments, portfolio investments, foreign loans.

Deo kolekcije (1)

o:28218

Ekonomski fakultet