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ESTIMATION OF THE SIZE AND DYNAMICS OF THE SHADOW ECONOMY IN SERBIA
Tanasković, Svetozar
Arsić, Milojko
Ranđelović, Saša
In this study, the shadow economy is estimated using two innovative methods - one based on macroeconomic data and the other based on an improved monetary model of cash demand. The method based on macroeconomic data estimates the shadow economy as the sum of unreported income (shadow economy in the domain of income) and unregistered taxable supply of goods and services (shadow economy in the domain of consumption), which represents a coherent methodological procedure now applied in a novel manner. The shadow economy in the domain of income was estimated based on the data of the Statistical Office of Serbia (SOS) from national accounts and standard national survey data (Labor Force Survey; Survey on Income and Living Conditions), as the sum of unreported labour income and unreported income from capital. The shadow economy in the domain of consumption was estimated by a recursive methodological procedure, based on the previously estimated VAT gap (calculated using the modified C-efficiency method) and the average weighted VAT rate, using the SOS data from national accounts statistics and macrofiscal data from the Ministry of Finance.
Acknowledgments and Limitation of Liability This study was carried out within the project “Macroeconomic Research of Cashless Payments in Serbia”, which is financed through the develoPPP program implemented by the German Organization for International Cooperation ( Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH ) on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The project is an integral part of the National Initiative for Cashless Payments (Serbia) - “A Better Way”, a project jointly implemented by GIZ and the companies Visa and Mastercard in partnership with NALED and the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia.
engleski
2024
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Keywords: shadow economy, Serbia, methodology