Naslov (eng)

SUSTAINABILITY OF FISCAL FRAMEWORK AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SERBIA

Autor

Ranđelović, Saša

Opis (eng)

Abstract In the last three years, Serbia led a very expansionary fiscal policy, with a fiscal deficit higher than the average of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)1 and the Western Balkans2 . This led to a significant rise in public debt in absolute terms, while public debt-to-GDP ratio increased only slightly, due to the currency structure of debt, the unchanged exchange rate of the dinar against the euro, and high inflation. At the end of 2022, Serbia was the European median in terms of public debt, although the debt was above the average of comparable CEE countries. Despite the moderate level of debt, public interest expenditures and the effective interest rate on Serbia’s public debt are relatively high in European terms, which is a consequence of the fact that financial markets in less developed countries see the limit of sustainability of public finances at a lower level of indebtedness than in developed countries. Tightening of monetary policy in the world will trigger the further increase of government spending on interest, which may crowd-out more productive public expenditures or narrow the room for tax cuts, which is why it is especially important to keep the public debt at a lower level in the coming period. At the end of 2022, Serbia implemented a fundamental reform of fiscal rules. The advantage of the new fiscal rules is reflected in a lower deficit target and a more detailed elaboration of the government’s response mechanisms to violations of the rules. Raising the public debt ceiling to the upper limit of the prohibitive zone, the elimination of countercyclical elements in the deficit rule and the absence of clear escape clauses for periods of crisis may pose a limitation. The new fiscal rules could contribute to the sustainability of Serbia’s fiscal policy, provided that their consistent and continuous application is ensured.

Opis (srp)

Sažetak U prethodne tri godine Srbija je vodila vrlo ekspanzivnu fiskalnu politiku, sa fiskalnim deficitom većim od proseka zemalja Centralne i Istočne Evrope (CIE) i Zapadnog Balkana. To je dovelo do znatnog rasta javnog duga u apsolutnom iznosu, ali je odnos javnog duga i BDP-a porastao relativno malo, zbog devizne strukture javnog duga, nepromenjenog kursa dinara prema evru i visoke inflacije. Krajem 2022. godine, Srbija je prema visini javnog duga bila evropska medijana, mada je dug bio iznad proseka uporedivih zemalja CIE. I pored umerenog nivoa duga, javni rashodi na kamate i efektivna kamatna stopa na javni dug Srbije su u evropskim razmerama relativno visoki, što je posledica činjenice da finansijska tržišta u manje razvijenim državama granicu održivosti javnih finansija vide na nižem nivou zaduženosti nego u razvijenim državama. Zatezanje monetarne politike u svetu uticaće na dalje povećanje troškova kamata, koji istiskuju produktivnije javne rashode ili prostor za smanjenje poreza, zbog čega je posebno važno u narednom periodu javni dug držati na nižem nivou. Srbija je krajem 2022. godine izvršila temeljnu reformu fiskalnih pravila. Prednost novih fiskalnih pravila ogleda se u nižem ciljanom deficitu i detaljnijoj razradi mehanizama reagovanja države na kršenje pravila. Podizanje limita javnog duga na gornju granicu prohibitivne zone, eliminacija kontracikličnih elemenata u pravilu vezanom za fiskalni deficit i odsustvo korektivnih mehanizama za krizne periode, mogu predstavljati ograničenja. Nova fiskalna pravila bi mogla da doprinesu održivosti fiskalne politike Srbije, pod uslovom da se obezbedi njihova dosledna i kontinuirana primena.

Jezik

engleski

Datum

2023

Licenca

© All rights reserved

Predmet

Ključne reči: fiskalna politika, fiskalna pravila, fiskalni okvir i privredni rast

Keywords: fiscal policy, fiscal rules, fiscal framework and economic growth

Deo kolekcije (1)

o:28218

Ekonomski fakultet