Naslov (srp)

Modeling and Forecasting CPI in Serbia Using the SARIMA Model

Autor

Nikolić, Katarina
Radojičić, Dragana

Opis (eng)

Abstract: To develop the most appropriate economic strategies in a country, policymakers need to have a reliable forecast of the rate of inflation. This is achieved is by using the appropriate model that possesses high predictive accuracy. This paper analyzes the efficacy of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models to anticipate the CPI rates in Serbia. The model is developed using the monthly CPI (2010=100) in Serbia in the period 1995- first half of 2022 obtained from the International Monetary Fund. The paper aims to demonstrate the importance of modeling seasonal series, the structure of the SARIMA model, and possibilities of application in the field of economics, specifically related to the analysis of CPI, but also the importance of seasonal influences in general. The qualities, as well as shortcomings of the model, serve to provide breadth in the observation of economic phenomena.

Jezik

engleski

Datum

2023

Licenca

Ovo delo je licencirano pod uslovima licence
Creative Commons CC BY-NC 4.0 - Creative Commons Autorstvo - Nekomercijalno 4.0 International License.

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/legalcode

Predmet

Keywords: time series modeling, seasonality, CPI, forecasting, SARIMA

Deo kolekcije (1)

o:28218

Ekonomski fakultet