Naslov (eng)

What determines an optimal moment of accession to the EU? Evidence from later enlargements.

Autor

Šabotić, Zenaida
Marinković, Srđan
Banković, Dragić

Opis (eng)

Abstract: The formation of the European Union (EU) was a very demanding and hard work, but its preservation seems to be even harder. Despite all the difficulties that had been exposed during development, EU managed to preserve the core values on which it was based. Many countries are trying to harmonize national economic policy with economic policy of EU and became the members of the same. However, for the future and stability of the EU and all member countries, it is important to assess when is the best time for new enlargement. In this paper, we have tested a number of macroeconomic and macro-financial variables in order to test whether a number of countries were ready to join the EU, as well as, when the candidates will be ready to do so. Some variables present criteria of nominal convergence, as defined in Maastricht Treaty, while the rest of variables indicate the level of real convergence. Univariate analysis has indicated that the membership in the EU is significantly affected by the current account balance (% of GDP), GDP per capita, final consumption expenditure, the gross national expenditure and inflation. Following the univariate binary logistic analysis and separation of variables that affect the individual membership in the EU, a multivariate regression analysis was applied, including in the model some previously excluded variables. Multivariate binary logistic regression confirmed significance of final consumption and consumption expenditure, while Gross capital formation has had only indicative effect on membership in the EU. The analysis indicated the importance of selecting the timing of accession in terms of the achieved economic development expressed through the selected macroeconomic indicators

Jezik

engleski

Datum

2018

Licenca

© All rights reserved

Predmet

Keywords: macroeconomic indicators, European Union, monetary integration, convergence criteria

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