Digitalni repozitorijum
Univerziteta u Beogradu
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Posledice PANDEMIJE COVID-19 na svetsku trgovinu i eksterna pozicija Srbije
Kovačević, Radovan
Abstract: The world economy has fallen into a deep recession due to the COVID-19 pan- demic. Although the decreasing trend in the world economy had been observed even before the outbreak of the pandemic, the pandemic in- tensified this trend. In parallel with the decline in world demand and the emergence of restric- tions on the international movement of people and goods, the weakness in trade has been ex- ceptional. The current trade forecast indicates that the volume of world imports of goods and services is expected to fall by about 12% in 2020. These tendencies affect the decline in Serbia’s merchandise exports in 2020. A sig- nificant share in Serbia’s merchandise exports belongs to foreign investors, which prevented a greater drop in exports in the pandemic en- vironment. The increase in the current account deficit of Serbia since 2017 has raised the question of the source of its financing. In the last few years, the current account deficit has been fully covered by the net inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI). However, the accumu- lated fund of foreign investments in the domes- tic economy increases the annual amount of dividends, which foreign investors can take out of the country. Therefore, this outflow can be expected to cause an increase in the negative balance of the primary income account, which could represent additional pressure on the do- mestic balance of payments. The growth of merchandise exports and the allocation of new foreign investments in export-oriented manu- facturing sectors would have a positive impact on both trade and the current account balance. This would reduce the pressure on additional foreign borrowing. The net inflow of FDI so far has contributed to the fact that the external shock of COVID-19 did not disturb the exter- nal position of Serbia. An increase in Serbia’s country risk premium has not been registered in 2020, and international credit rating agen- cies are favorably assessing Serbia’s credit rat- ing and the future prospects.
Apstakt: Svetska privreda je zapala u duboku recesiju zbog pandemije COVID-19. Mada je i pre izbijanja pandemije registrovana tendenci- ja pada privredne aktivnosti u svetu, pandemi- ja je pojačala ovaj trend. Paralelno sa opada- njem svetske tražnje i pojavom ograničenja za kretanje ljudi i robe, usledilo je i malaksanje svetske trgovine. Tekuće projekcije ukazuju da se u 2020. godini očekuje pad volumena svetskog uvoza robe i usluga za oko 12%. Ove tendencije utiču na pad robnog izvoza Srbije u 2020. go- dini. Značajno učešće u robnom izvozu Srbije pripada stranim investitorima, što je u uslovima pandemije sprečilo veći pad izvoza. Porast defi- cita tekućeg računa Srbije od 2017. godine po- krenuo je pitanje izvora njegovog finansiranja. U poslednjih nekoliko godina deficit tekućeg ra- čuna u potpunosti se pokriva neto prilivom stra- nih direktnih investicija (SDI). Međutim, nago- milavanjem fonda stranih investicija u domaćoj privredi povećava se godišnji iznos dividendi, koji strani investitori mogu izneti iz zemlje. Zbog toga se može očekivati da ovaj odliv izazove povećanje negativnog salda računa primarnog dohotka, što bi predstavljalo dodatni pritisak na domaći platni bilans. Povećanje robnog izvoza i usmeravanje novih stranih investicija u izvozne sektore pozitivno bi uticalo kako na trgovinski tako i na bilans tekućih transakcija. Time bi se smanjio pritisak na dodatno zaduživanje u ino- stranstvu. Dosadašnji neto priliv SDI je doprineo da eksterni šok COVID-19 nije poremetio ekster- nu poziciju Srbije. Premija rizika naše zemlje nije povećana, a međunarodne agencije za ocenu kreditnog rejtinga povoljno ocenjuju kreditni rej- ting Srbije i perspektive za naredne godine
srpski
2021
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Ključne reči: IZVOZ, UVOZ, TEKUĆI RA- ČUN, FINANSIJSKI RAČUN, SDI, COVID-19, SPOLJNI DUG.
KEY WORDS: EXPORTS, IMPORTS, CU- RRENT ACCOUNT, FINANCIAL ACCO- UNT, FDI, COVID-19, EXTERNAL DEBT