Digitalni repozitorijum
Univerziteta u Beogradu
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Kvazi-hiperboličko diskontovanje i odlučivanje : primer Srbije i Crne Gore
Draganac, Dragana
Grgurović, Ivan
Apstrakt: U radu ispitujemo da li je i u kojoj meri kvazi-hiberboličko diskontovanje prisutno kod stanovnika Srbije i Crne Gore i da li postoji pristrasnost prema trenutnim nagradama. Do- datno, želimo da proverimo da li se diskontne stope razlikuju u odnosu na razvijene i stabilne zemlje i da li postoji međugeneracijski prenos obrazaca diskontovanja budućih koristi između roditelja i dece. Cilj je da se utvrdi kakav uticaj kvazi-hiberboličko diskontovanje ima na dono- šenje odluka stanovnika ove dve zemlje i kakve implikacije te odluke mogu imati na privredu u celini. U teoriji i praksi se najčešće koristi koncept eksponencijalnog diskontovanja, ali njegovom primenom ne možemo da objasnimo mnoge od- luke, kao ni posledice datih odluka. Primenili smo metod eksperimenta, gde su ispitanici parovi roditelja i njihove dece davali odgovore na dva seta pitanja. Rezultati pokazuju da je izraženo kvazi-hiberboličko diskontovanje, pristrasnost prema trenutnim nagradama, preokret prefe- rencija i apsolutni efekat veličine i kod roditelja i kod dece, kao i da su diskontne stope mnogo više u odnosu na diskonte stope kod stanovnika razvijenih i stabilnih zemalja, koje nisu imale tur- bulentne ekonomske i društvene periode. Uočeno je da postoji značajan međugeneracijski prenos obrazaca diskontovanja između roditelja i dece, gde na visinu diskontne stope dece utiče diskontna stopa roditelja. Rezultati mogu biti primenjeni pri objašnjenju svakodnevnih životnih odluka i navika, kao što su prokrastinacija, sklonost ka nezdravom životu, ali i pri analiziranju odluka o potrošnji i štednji, problema u redovnoj otplati dugova, nerade kupovine proizvoda osiguravaju- ćih kompanija, kao i pri objašnjenju kratkovidog ponašanja menadžera pri postavljanju ciljne funkcije preduzeća i oblikovanju investicione politike, dividendne politike i strukture kapita- la. U osnovi većine ovih pitanja leži problem samokontrole pojedinaca, averzija na gubitak, averzija na neizvesnost i kajanje, i potrebno je naći adekvatne mere ekonomskih i javnih politika koje će, kroz podsticanje, smanjiti ili eliminisati neprihvatljiva ponašanja, koja negativno utiču na privredni sistem u celini.
Abstract:The paper examines if and to which extent quasi-hyperbolic discounting is present in individuals from the Republic of Serbia and Montenegro and if there is present bias. Furt- hermore, we want to examine whether there is a difference in discount rates between individuals from the Republic of Serbia and Montenegro and other developed and more stable and peaceful countries. Additionally, our aim is to check if there is intergenerational transmission of disco- unting patterns between parents and their kids. The main goal of the research is to examine the impacts of quasi-hyperbolic discounting on the decision-making process of individuals from these two countries and which are the implications of their decisions for the economy as a whole. The most often used concept of discounting, both in theory and practice, is exponential discounting. However, this concept cannot explain a lot of decisions we observe, nor the consequences of these decisions. In this paper, we used the method of economic experiment, where respondents are parent-kid pairs. They were giving answers to two sets of questions. The results of the research show that there is quasi-hyperbolic discounting in individuals from the Republic of Serbia and Montenegro and that discount rates are much higher compared to discount rates in residents of developed and stable countries, which did not have turbulent economic and social events. Additionally, present bias, reversal of preferen- ces and absolute magnitude effect are observed both in parents and their kids. Intergenerational transmission of discounting patterns between parents and kids is observed: parents’ discount rate significantly impacts kids’ discount rates. Research results can be applied to the explana- tion of everyday life decisions and habits, such as procrastination and unhealthy life, but also to the analysis of decisions about consumption and savings, problems in regular repayment of debts, reluctant buying of insurance, as well as to the explanation of myopic behaviour of managers in setting corporate goal function, making investment policy, payout policy and deciding on the capital structure of the company. The underlying problem of most of these issues is self-control problem, loss aversion, uncertainty aversion and regret aversion. It is crucial to shape adequate measures of economic and public policy that could, through nudges, reduce or eliminate bad behaviors that negatively affect the economic system as a whole.
srpski
2023
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KLJUČNE REČI: KVAZI-HIBERBOLIČKO DISKONTOVANJE, PRISTRASNOST PREMA TRENUTNIM NAGRADAMA, MEĐUGENERA-CIJSKI PRENOS, JAVNE POLITIKE
KEYWORDS: QUASI-HYPERBOLICAL DIS- COUNTING, PRESENT BIAS, INTERGENERA- TIONAL TRANSMISSION, PUBLIC POLICY