Perspektive stranih direktnih investicija u uslovima kriza i položaj Srbije i zemalja regiona
Apstrakt: U situaciji sve dinamičnijih promena u okruženju, privrede zemalja koje svoj razvoj zasnivaju i na prilivu stranih direktnih investi- cija, umesto novih mogućnosti, suočavaju se sa brojnim ograničenjima.Ovaj rad ima za cilj da ukaže na izazove sa kojima se suočava privreda Srbije, ali i privrede zemalja Regiona, u uslovima brojnih, intenzivnih i sve učestalijih kriza, različitih uzroka. Međunarodna proizvodnja, organizovana prevashodno u obliku globalnih lanaca vrednosti, a okrenuta sirovinama i radnoj snazi u inostranstvu, suočena je sa novim oblicima protekcionizma. Uz usporavanje multilateralne liberalizacije, pojavu povećane restriktivnosti zemalja u po- gledu politika kojima se reguliše priliv stranih direktnih investicija, razbijanje globalnih lanaca vrednosti, deglobalizaciju, gradi se okruženje u kojima brojne privrede i dalje imaju potrebu za privlačenjem novih stranih direktnih investicija i zadržavanja starih. Jedna od mogućnosti upravo jeste nearshoring, nastao kao rezultat potrebe da se, usled porasta transportnih troškova i porasta cena sirovina, približi proces proizvodnje zemlja- ma porekla investicija. Druga mogućnost za ove zemlje, uključujući i Srbiju, zasniva se na intenzi- viranju uloge regionalnih lanaca vrednosti, koji se mogu razvijati na osnovu brojnih regionalnih trgovinskih sporazuma, već utemeljenih, između ostalog i otvaranjem mogućnosti za regionalno i dijagonalno kumuliranje porekla robe. Analiza ograničenja i pojedinih mogućnosti omogućuje da se, u vidu zaključka, uoče okvirne perspekti- ve koje nastaju na temeljima ovako intenzivnih promena u svetu.
Abstract: With the situation of increasingly dyna- mic changes in the environment, the economies basing their development at the foreign direct investments’ inflow, instead of new opportunities, faced numerous limitations. This work aims to point out the challenges faced by the economy of Serbia, as well as the Region economies, in the situation of numerous, intense and increasingly frequent crises, provoked by various reasons. International production, organized primarily in the form of global value chains, and focused on raw materials and labor force abroad, is faced with new forms of protectionism. Along with the slowdown of multilateral liberalization, with the fact that increased restrictiveness of countries concerning policies regulating the inflow of foreign direct investments was recognized, the global va- lue chains segmentaion and the deglobalization, a business environment was created, with many economies still needing to attract new foreign direct investments and retain old ones. One of the possibilities is nearshoring, which arose as a result of the need to bring the production process closer to the countries of investments` origin, due to the increase of transport costs and the raw material prices increase. Another possibility for these countries, including Serbia, is based on intensifying the role of regional va- lue chains, which can be developed concerning 1 Blomström et al, 2000, p. 5. regional trade agreements, already established, among other things, by opening the possibility for regional and diagonal cumulation of the origin of goods. It can be concluded that the analysis of limitations and individual possibilities allows us to see, the framework of perspectives that arise on the basis of such intense changes in the world.
srpski
2023
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KEYWORDS: FOREIGN DIRECT INVES- TMENTS, DEGLOBALISATION, GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS, NEARSHORING
KLJUČNE REČI: STRANE DIREKTNE IN- VESTICIJE, DEGLOBALIZACIJA, GLOBALNI LANCI VREDNOSTI, NEARSHORING