Naslov (srp)

Da li je Trfinova dilema još uvek validna?

Autor

Kovačević, Radovan

Opis (eng)

ABSTRACT: Triffin drew attention to the weakness of the Bretton Woods system because of his reli- ance on the dollar as a reserve currency. His analysis of the shortage of gold in the inter- war period showed that the Bretton Woods system will be facing the same problem. He considered that the world would therefore face the deflation risk. The needs of central banks in the Bretton Woods system to increase foreign exchange reserves will ultimately, according to Triffin, outperform the available US gold reserves. Given that the US was obliged to convert dollars into gold at the price of $35 per ounce at the request of cen- tral banks, Triffin felt that, at the stage of central banks pressure, the US gold reserves would be exhausted. The rising interest rates in the US, according to Triffin’s expecta- tions, would lead to global deflation pressures. Although Triffin considered that central banks should accumulate dollar reserves, due to the dollar’s global reserve status and the status of intervening currency on the foreign exchange market, he remained famous in the literature as the so-called Triffin’s dilemma or Triffin’s paradox. The essence of this paradox is that the dollar can not survive as a world reserve currency if the US does not permanently increase the current account deficit to supply the world liquidity needs. The excessive emission of the dollar, on the other hand, increases US external debt to an unsustainable level and can undermine the value of the dollar, Triffin said. Although with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system this dilemma has lost its appeal, because the US was no longer obliged to convert dollars into gold, the issue of linking the US current account balance and international liquidity is intrigued by analysts today. Given that the dollar is still the world reserve currency, the paper shows that US current account deficit is still an important channel for creating the international liquidity. The fiscal aspect of the Triffin dilemma is that global growth in demand for safe assets affects the creation of excessive US fiscal deficits, which is not sustainable in the long run. This aspect of Triffin’s dilemma remains relevant. The Triffin dilemma still points to the advantages and disadvantages associated with the status of the national currency as the world reserve currency. In practice, a perception of the convergence of interests between the US, which still enjoys the benefits of the dollar’s role as the world’s primary reserve currency, on the one side, and creditors that continue to accumulate dollar assets, on the other side, is confirmed. The paper points to the practical implications of the dollar’s status as a world reserve currency and assesses the vitality of Triffin’s dilemma today.

Opis (srp)

APSTRAKT: Trifin je skrenuo pažnju na slabost Bretonvudskog sistema zbog oslonca na dolar kao re- zervnu valutu. Trifinova analiza nestašice zlata u međuratnom periodu pokazala je da će se sa istim problemom susresti i Bretonvudski sistem. Smatrao je da će se svet zbog toga suočiti sa rizikom deflacije. Potrebe centralnih banaka u Bretonvudskom sistemu da po- većavaju devizne rezerve će na kraju, prema Trifinu, nadmašiti raspoložive zlatne rezerve SAD. S obzirom na to da su SAD bile u obavezi da na zahteve centralnih banaka konver- tuju dolare u zlato po ceni od 35 dolara za jednu uncu zlata, Trifin je smatrao da će u fazi pritiska centralnih banaka američke rezerve zlata biti iscrpljene. Prateći rast kamatnih stopa u SAD, bi, prema Trifinovim očekivanjima, doveo do globalne deflacije. Mada je Trifin smatrao da centralne banke treba da akumuliraju dolarske rezerve, zbog statusa dolara kao svetske rezervne valute i valute kojom se interveniše na deviznom tržištu, u literaturi je ostao poznat po tzv. Trifinovoj dilemi ili Trifinovom paradoksu. Suština ovog paradoksa je da dolar ne može preživeti kao svetska rezervna valuta ako SAD stalno ne povećavaju deficit tekućeg računa, da bi svet snabdevale likvidnošću. Preterana emisija dolara, na drugoj strani, povećava spoljni dug SAD do neodrživog nivoa i može potkopati vrednost dolara, ocenio je Trifin. Mada je sa raspadom Bretonvudskog sistema ova dilema izgubila na privlačnosti, jer SAD više nisu bile u obavezi da konvertuju dolare u zlato, pi- tanje povezanosti bilansa tekućeg računa SAD i međunarodne likvidnosti i danas intrigira analitičare. S obzirom da je dolar još uvek vodeća svetska rezervna valuta, u ovom radu pokazujemo da je deficit tekućeg računa SAD i danas važan kanal kreiranja međunarodne likvidnosti. Fiskalni aspekt Trifinove dileme sadržan je u oceni da rast globalne tražnje za sigurnim aktivama uslovljava formiranje prekomernog američkog fiskalnog deficita, koji nije održiv na duži rok. Ovaj aspekt Trifinove dileme i dalje je aktuelan. Trifinov paradoks i danas ukazuje na prednosti i teškoće koje se povezuju sa statusom nacionalne valute kao svetske rezervne valute. U praksi se uočava postojanje konvergencije interesa izme- đu SAD, koje i dalje uživaju prednosti zemlje ključne svetske valute, na jednoj strani, i zemalja kreditora koje i dalje akumuliraju dolarske aktive, na drugoj strani. U ovom radu se ukazuje na praktične implikacije statusa dolara kao svetske rezervne valute i ocenjuje životvornost Trifinove dileme danas.

Jezik

srpski

Datum

2018

Licenca

© All rights reserved

Predmet

KLJUČNE REČI: TRIFINOVA DILEMA, MEÐUNARODNE REZERVE, TEKUĆI RAČUN, MEÐUNARODNA INVESTICIONA POZICIJA

KEY WORDS: TRIFFIN DILEMMA, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, CURRENT ACCOUNT, INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION

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Ekonomski fakultet