Naslov (eng)

Determinants of volatility of economic activity in Europe during the COVID-19 pandemic: Stylized facts

Autor

Ranđelović, Saša

Opis (srp)

Sažetak: Gotovo sve evropske države su u 2020. godini, usled pandemije kovida 19 zabeležile negativne stope privrednog rasta, uz relativno veliku varijaciju po državama u pogledu dubine recesije. Sa rashodne strane posmatrano, pad je bio najizraženiji u segmentu lične potrošnje i investicija, a posmatrano po sektorima, najveći pad zabeležen je u sektoru saobraćaja i turizma, industrije i građevinarstva. U ovom radu se analiziraju tri grupe faktora koje su potencijalno mogle da utiču na varijaciju u dubini recesije u evropskim državama u 2020. godini – primena nefarmakoloških epidemioloških mera, struktura privrede i odgovor fiskalne politike. Podaci ukazuju na postojanje relativno snažne negativne korelacije između stope rasta BDP-a i udela sektora turizma, kao i umerene negativne korelacije između stope rasta i striktnosti epidemioloških mera, te umerene pozitivne korelacije između veličine direktnih fiskalnih stimulansa i stope privrednog rasta. Pad BDP-a Srbije u 2020. godini bio je znatno blaži u odnosu na prosečan pad u zemljama EU. Srbija je tokom većeg dela 2020. godine primenjivala blaže epidemiološke mere, dok je udeo sektora turizma u BDP-u Srbije znatno manji, a pad u ovom sektoru blaži u odnosu na evropski prosek. Istovremeno, direktni fiskalni stimulansi u Srbiji su bili znatno veći od evropskog proseka, što može ukazivati na to da ove tri grupe faktora mogu potencijalno objašnjavati blaži pad privrede Srbije u odnosu na evropski prosek u 2020. godini. Za izvođenje konačnih zaključaka po ovom pitanju, neophodno bi bilo izvršiti ekonometrijsko modeliranje, uzimanjem u obzir i uticaja drugih faktora.

Opis (eng)

Abstract: In 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, almost all European countries recorded negative rates of economic growth, with relatively large variations from one country to another in terms of the depth of the recession. From the expenditure side, the decline was most pronounced in the segment of personal consumption and investment. Observed by sectors, the largest decline was recorded in transport and tourism, manufacturing industry and construction. This paper analyzes three groups of factors that could have potentially influenced the variation in the depth of the recession in European countries in 2020 – the application of non-pharmacological epidemiological measures, the structure of the economy and the fiscal policy response. The data reveal a relatively strong negative correlation between the GDP growth rate and the share of the tourism sector, as well as a moderate negative correlation between the growth rate and the stringency of epidemiological measures and a moderate positive correlation between the size of direct fiscal stimuli and economic growth. The decline in Serbia’s GDP in 2020 was significantly lower than the average decline in EU countries. During most of 2020, Serbia applied looser epidemiological measures, while the share of the tourism sector in Serbia’s GDP is significantly smaller, and the contraction in this sector was lower than the European average. Direct fiscal stimuli in Serbia were significantly higher (by 48 percent) than the European average. This may indicate that these three groups of factors could potentially explain the lower decline of the Serbian economy compared to the European average in 2020. To draw final conclusions on this issue, econometric modeling would be required, taking into account the influence of other factors, as well.

Opis (eng)

Project: This research is part of the MICEPRE_EEEM - Macroeconomic implications of COVID-19 and effectiveness of policy response in Europe: Empirical evidence and econometric modelling project, funded by the Fund for Science of the Republic of Serbia

Jezik

engleski

Datum

2021

Licenca

© All rights reserved

Predmet

Ključne reči: pandemija kovida 19, privredni rast, nefarmakološke epidemiološke mere, sektorska struktura privrede, fiskalna politika

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; economic growth; nonpharmacological epidemiological measures; sectoral structure of economy; fiscal policy

Deo kolekcije (1)

o:28218

Ekonomski fakultet