Naslov (srp)

Modeliranje stohastičke strukture karakteristika velikih voda dobijenih iz serija pikova iznad praga : doktorska disertacija

Autor

Pavlović, Dragutin, 1966-

Doprinosi

Jevremović, Vesna, 1955-
Plavšić, Jasna, 1963-
Despotović, Jovan, 1952-
Dašić, Tina, 1970-
Radić, Zoran, 1955-

Opis (srp)

Na formiranje velikih voda utiˇcu mnogobrojni i medusobno uslovljeni ˇcinioci,pa se one najˇceˇs´ce opisuju u domenu verovatno´ce pojave. Merodavne velike vode,izraˇzene kroz protoke, zapremine, trajanja talasa i sliˇcno, uobiˇcajeno se dobijajuanalizom verovatno´ce pojave na godiˇsnjem nivou, preteˇzno metodom godiˇsnjih ek-strema. Medutim, unutar godine su mogu´ce pojave ve´ceg broja znaˇcajnih poplavnihtalasa koji se koriste u analizi verovatno´ce metodom pikova iznad praga.Karakteristike velikih voda dobijaju se iz nizova dnevnih protoka. U disertacijise pored osnovnih nizova karakteristika uvode u razmatranje i agregacije od dve iliviˇse uzastopnih vrednosti. To su veliˇcine sluˇcajnog karaktera i mogu se obuhvatitizbirnim nazivom karakteristike strukture velikih voda.Predmet istraˇzivanja u disertaciji su informacije o strukturi pojave velikih vodakoje se mogu izvesti iz nizova dnevnih protoka uvodenjem razliˇcitih karakteristikavelikih voda kao sluˇcajnih veliˇcina i analizom njihove verovatno´ce pojave.Hipoteza disertacije je da se upotrebom parcijalnih serija tj. pikova iznad praga,kroz koncept sluˇcajnih procesa, analiziraju elementi procesa velikih voda, odnosnonjihove strukture i da sve ekstremne vrednosti (vrhovi poplavnih talasa, zapreminetalasa velikih voda) nose informaciju o pojavi velikih voda.Cilj istraˇzivanja je da se na velike vode primeni metodologija analize pomo´cuprekidnih sluˇcajnih procesa proˇsirenjem postupaka iz metode pikova. Na karakteri-stikama velikih voda definiˇsu se dogadaji koji se mogu opisati sluˇcajnim procesima.Zadatak je da se verovatno´ce dogadaja opiˇsu funkcijama raspodele i ostvari de-taljniji uvid u strukturu velikih voda primenom prekidnih sluˇcajnih procesa.Primena postavljenih hipoteza i predloˇzenih metoda i postupaka analize stoha-stiˇcke strukture velikih voda prikazana je na podacima o srednjim dnevnim proto-cima na hidrometrijskoj stanici Bezdan na reci Dunav, za period od 1931. do 2009.godine.Disertacija je organizovana u ˇcetiri celine. Prvu ˇcini Uvod, gde je opisan znaˇcajprouˇcavanja velikih voda, postavljeni ciljevi disertacije i dat prikaz pristupa i me-toda stohastiˇcke analize velikih voda. Druga celina se bavi teorijskim osnovama zapredloˇzenu metodologiju stohastiˇckog modeliranja karakteristika velikih voda. Njuˇcine tri glave – od druge do ˇcetvrte. Maksimalna godiˇsnja zapremina talasa velikihvoda, trajanje talasa i trajanje ciklusa kao sluˇcajni procesi razmatraju se u glavi 2.Metoda pikova iznad praga za analizu maksimalnih godiˇsnjih protoka prikazana jeu glavi 3, a karakteristike velikih voda koje se mogu definisati na serijama pikovaiznad praga u glavi 4. Tre´cu celinu predstavlja test primer modeliranja stohastiˇckestrukture velikih voda prikazan u glavi 5. Poslednja, ˇcetvrta celina, je ˇsesta glavasa zakljuˇccima.U poglavljima o teorijskim osnovama prvo je predstavljen pregled poznatih kon-cepata za stohastiˇcku analizu. Predstavljene su metode analize i njihova tipizacija.Ukazano je na pretpostavke koje dovode do metoda koje se predlaˇzu u disertaciji.Dat je osvrt i na standardnu proceduru statistiˇcke analize velikih voda...

Opis (srp)

Gradevinarstvo.- Hidrologija / Civil Engineering – Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering. - Hydrology. Datum odbrane: 27.12.2013.

Opis (eng)

There are number of factors that influence flood occurrence. Many of them areinterdependent. Because of their random nature, floods are usually analysed usingstochastic models. The most widespread approach in estimating a design-flood isbased on the annual maximum series (AMS) of flood discharges. The design-floodis usually defined in terms of a peak-discharge-value, but it may also be defined interms of its volume or its duration. Another approach is the peak-over-thresholdmethod (POT). As there might be a number of flood occurrences within a year,only those ones whose peaks exceed a given threshold level are used to define floodcharacteristics in the POT. These floods form a partial duration series.Datasets of flood characteristics are derived from the daily mean flow data. Inaddition to the basic (raw) datasets of the considered flood characteristic (a peakdischarge, a flood duration, a flood volume, a number of flood occurrences withina specified interval, a time duration between the two floods, etc.), datasets derivedthrough aggregation of two or more consecutive members of the basic series are alsoconsidered in this dissertation. Members of the derived datasets are also randomvariables. Together with the corresponding raw data they are termed flood structurecharacteristics.The dissertation, thus deals with the information about the flood structure thatmight be deduced from the daily mean flow data through the introduction of floodcharacteristics and the analysis of their probability distributions using different stoc-hastic models.The main hypothesis is that all relevant information about the floods and theirstructure are inherent in the values of the flood characteristics that exceed giventhreshold, i.e. in the partial duration series of flood characteristics.The dissertation aims at applying the theory of intermittent stochastic processeson the series of flood structure characteristics with procedures extended from thepeak-over-threshold methods. To do this, probabilities of chosen events should bedescribed with appropriate distribution functions. The data used to check the va-lidity of the posed hypothesis and the applied methodology are obtained from themean daily series for the Bezdan gauging station on the Danube River in Serbia.These data refer to the 79-years long period, i.e. to the period 1931-2009.The dissertation has four parts that are organised in six chapters. The first partis Chapter 1 Introduction. In this part, the importance of the flood analysis isoutlined, aims and objectives of the study are set forth and the stochastic appro-ach to the problem of the flood analysis is presented along with the description ofavailable stochastic models. In the second part, which contains the following threechapters, theoretical bases of the proposed methodology for the description and pre-diction of the flood behaviour are given. The annual maximal volume of the flood,the flood duration and the flood cycle duration are defined as stochastic processesin Chapter 2. The peak-over-threshold method in the analysis of the flood peakdischarges is described in Chapter 3, while Chapter 4 presents how the other floodcharacteristics are defined and derived from the partial duration series of the floodpeak discharges. The proposed methodology for modelling stochastic structure offlood characteristics, derived from the peak-over-threshold series, is tested againstthe 79-years record of mean flow data from the gauging station Bezdan on the Da-nube River in the third part of the dissertation (Chapter 5). The most importantconclusions from this study are summarised in the forth part (Chapter 6).

Jezik

srpski

Datum

2013

Licenca

Ovo delo je licencirano pod uslovima licence
Creative Commons CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 AT - Creative Commons Autorstvo - Nekomercijalno - Bez prerada 3.0 Austria License.

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/at/legalcode

Predmet

OSNO - Opšta sistematizacija naučnih oblasti, Građevinarstvo

OSNO - Opšta sistematizacija naučnih oblasti, Površinske vode

velike vode, stohastiˇcka struktura, pikovi iznad praga, modeliranje.

OSNO - Opšta sistematizacija naučnih oblasti, Građevinarstvo

OSNO - Opšta sistematizacija naučnih oblasti, Površinske vode

Flood Flows, Stohastic Structure, Peaks Over Threshold, Modelling.